- 主页
- Sustainable Development Goals
- Reduced Inequalities
Reduced Inequalities
La incursión de China en el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN) y sus efectos en el comercio intraindustrial
Transición de la escuela al trabajo. Tres décadas de evidencia para América Latina
Un sistema de modelamiento para evaluar las consecuencias económicas del cambio climático en el Caribe
Jamaica: tamaño de las empresas y remuneración laboral en el sector privado
Una propuesta para la modificación del Índice de Desarrollo Humano
Trabajo, familia y cambios en la política pública en América Latina: equidad, maternalismo y corresponsabilidad
Brechas salariales entre el sector público y privado en Chile: evidencia a partir de datos longitudinales
El negocio internacional de espárrago en el Perú
Innovación, investigación y desarrollo, y productividad en Chile
Se estudia la relación entre la inversión en investigación y desarrollo (i+d) y la productividad en el sector manufacturero chileno usando datos de la Encuesta de Innovación Tecnológica del último decenio. El análisis se basa en un modelo multiecuación en que se consideran todo el proceso de innovación y los determinantes de las decisions empresariales de invertir en i+d así como los resultados en innovación y sus efectos en la productividad. Se constata que: i) es más probable que las grandes firmas inviertan en i+d; ii) la intensidad del gasto en i+d incrementa la probabilidad de innovar en procesos; iii) asimismo ella no afecta a la probabilidad de innovar en productos; iv) la menor “apropiabilidad” disminuye la probabilidad de innovar en procesos; v) es más probable que la innovación en productos se introduzca desde las empresas de mayor tamaño y vi) la productividad aumenta con la innovación en procesos.
Los bancos de desarrollo en la “era de la liberalización financier”: El caso del BNDES en Brasil
En este artículo se examinan las posibles repercusiones de la política de liberalización financiera en el papel de los bancos de desarrollo y en particular del Banco Nacional de Desarrollo Económico y Social (bndes) como principal financiador del proceso de desarrollo económico brasileño. Se argumenta que si bien la liberalización puede promover el desenvolvimiento financiero este tiende a ocurrir de manera “incompleta” sobre todo ante las necesidades de progreso económico en los países menos desarrollados entre ellos Brasil. El análisis del caso brasileño parece confirmar esta tesis y demuestra que a pesar de la política de liberalización financiera aplicada el bndes no solo preservó sino que amplió su posición relativa en el mercado local durante el período analizado (1990-2006).
La fijación de metas de inflación da buenos resultados en América Latina
En este trabajo se analizan los efectos macroeconómicos de la adopción de metas de inflación en cinco países de América Latina entre 2000 y 2007. Se realizan pruebas econométricas cuyos resultados revelan que la estrategia de metas inflacionarias ha contribuido a reducir el nivel y la variabilidad de las tasas de inflación y de interés a corto plazo en contraste con países latinoamericanos que no adoptaron tales objetivos. Además se constata empíricamente que el mantenimiento de esas metas ha contribuido a disminuir la variabilidad del crecimiento del pib si bien su efecto neto en el crecimiento económico aún no queda claro. La principal innovación técnica de este artículo consiste en la estimación de un modelo de efectos de tratamiento para solucionar el problema de endogeneidad vinculado a la adopción de objetivos de inflación inherente a la mayoría de las pruebas econométricas realizadas hasta hoy en ese terreno.
Crece y cambia la clase media en América Latina: Una puesta al día
En este trabajo se utiliza una definición bidimensional de clase media en que se combinan la ocupación del principal proveedor de ingreso del hogar (manual no manual) y el ingreso familiar como una variable sustitutiva del consumo. Esto permite explorar los cambios “objetivos” de la clase media en América Latina entre 1990 y 2007. Se analizan los cambios “subjetivos” en valores aspiraciones e identidad de clase entre otros. Resalta el crecimiento tanto relativo como absoluto de los sectores medios así como el incremento generalizado de la educación opacado por la devaluación de su importancia relativa para generar ingreso y la menor relevancia de la diferencia entre ocupaciones manuales y no manuales de nivel bajo como determinante del ingreso. La heterogeneidad de los estratos medios se evidencia tanto en cortes verticales como horizontales relacionados con diferentes tipos de riesgos y niveles de bienestar característicos de los hogares de cada segmento.
Integración regional y diversificación de exportaciones en el Mercosur: El caso de Argentina y Brasil
Se analizan los efectos del comercio argentino con sus socios del Mercosur en dos períodos clave: antes (1997-1998) y después (2005-2006) de las crisis de sus economías. Para examinar la repercusión del comercio en la regionalización de las exportaciones e importaciones de los países miembros se utilizó el índice de orientación regional empleado por Yeats al estudiar estos países para otro período. Se concluye que los resultados alcanzados por Yeats se contradicen con la realidad posterior de Argentina y Brasil a los que el Mercosur permitió mediante procesos de aprendizaje aumentar el comercio con países exteriores al bloque. Este efecto positivo se sintió principalmente en Brasil y no tanto en los demás miembros especialmente Uruguay y Paraguay debido a las asimetrías subyacentes entre las economías de estos países que determinaron que el país más grande sea el principal beneficiado de la integración hasta el presente.
¿Mejora la distribución del ingreso con la educación? El caso del Perú
¿Es el sistema educativo un factor nivelador del ingreso? Según datos provenientes de países en desarrollo si bien la educación se ha expandido enormemente en los últimos decenios la distribución del ingreso no se ha vuelto más equitativa. En el presente artículo se procura resolver esta aparente paradoja. Se construye un modelo teórico sobre la relación entre educación e ingresos en el que la identidad étnica desempeña un papel clave en el proceso de distribución. El modelo permite diagnosticar que el sistema educativo no es un factor nivelador de los ingresos. A partir del modelo teórico se deriva un conjunto más amplio de predicciones que posteriormente se contrastan con información disponible respecto del Perú. Los resultados de las pruebas estadísticas coinciden con las predicciones del modelo.
Argentina: Difusión del algodón GM e impacto en la rentabilidad de los pequeños productores de la Provincia del Chaco
En este trabajo se analiza la adopción del algodón genéticamente modificado (GM) por parte de pequeños productores del Chaco Argentina. Se utiliza el marco conceptual de la configuración socio-técnica de la tecnología en que se postula que existe un conjunto de factores que inciden de manera relevante en la forma en que funcionan las tecnologías. Desde este marco se describen las condiciones en que los pequeños productores del Chaco adoptan el algodón GM y se señalan las diferencias existentes con los grandes productores en quienes se centra la mayor parte de la literatura. A partir de metodologías cualitativas se analizan las rupturas y continuidades ocurridas desde la introducción del algodón GM en las prácticas productivas que afectan a la rentabilidad de los pequeños productores. Se constata que las dificultades productivas que estos enfrentan no han variado esencialmente y en algunos casos se han profundizado.
La industria argentina a comienzos del siglo XXI
En este artículo se estudia el singular proceso de crecimiento industrial experimentado por la Argentina entre 2003 y 2008. Por sobre los indicadores agregados que dan cuenta de ese crecimiento se discuten algunas evidencias de cambio en la participación sectorial observada durante estos años y ciertas particularidades referents a la evolución del empleo manufacturero. Asimismo se analizan los principales patrones del comercio exterior de la industria argentina en el período señalado. Estos revelan como aspectos auspiciosos una mayor inserción relativa de la producción local en mercados externos y el surgimiento de un nuevo conjunto de firmas nacionales dinámicas en sus exportaciones manufactureras. Paralelamente y como característica estructural remanente se verifica una participación creciente de las importaciones en la demanda doméstica de bienes industriales.
Chile: Interacción Estado-sociedad civil en las políticas de infancia
En este trabajo se observa el vínculo público-privado existente en Chile para abordar políticas de infancia. Se analizan el papel de ambas esferas y las dimensiones y componentes necesarios para que este encuentro anteponga el interés superior del niño. Se considera el juicio de expertos mediante el análisis de contenido permitiendo identificar las dimensiones y componentes relevantes de la interacción. Posteriormente la metodología ahp (proceso analítico jerárquico) permite priorizarlos cuantitativamente procurando que este encuentro incida positivamente en la niñez. Se evidencia que esta interacción se desarrolla verticalmente donde el Estado define las políticas y la sociedad civil las implementa debido principalmente a que en la esfera pública se administran los recursos que en alto porcentaje sostienen a la esfera privada. Se concluye que existe el desafío de generar diálogos horizontales en que la interacción no sea condicionada por recursos económicos sino por el propósito compartido respecto de la infancia.
Reunión sobre una nueva América Latina en la cambiante economía mundial
Los estudios que se ofrecen a continuación fueron expuestos durante una reunión informal pequeña pero de alta jerarquía realizada en el BelmontConférence Center cerca de Washington D.C. el 25 y 26 de junio de 1979 y donde se trató el tema “Una nueva América Latina en la cambiante economía mundial”.
Repercusiones monetarias y reales de la apertura financiera al exterior. El caso chileno; 1975-1978
Este artículo se propone describir y analizar algunos aspectos no suficientemente investigados de la política macroeconóinica chilena a corto plazo con especial énfasis en los de carácter financiero aplicados a partir de fines de 1973 y más específicamente desde el primer trimestre de 1975 cuando se inició el denominado Programa de Recuperación Económica.
América Latina: ¿cómo repercuten en los mercados y el bienestar las reformas de la política agraria y del comercio?
Los ingresos de la agricultura en la región han sido mermados debido a políticas nacionales que priorizan a los centros urbanos y menoscaban el comercio internacional. Estas políticas así como los programas de apoyo a la agricultura que aplican los países más ricos han reducido el bienestar económico y obstaculizado el comercio y el desarrollo y posiblemente acentuado la desigualdad de los ingresos. En este trabajo se resumen los resultados de un proyecto del Banco Mundial que provee: indicadores de la medida en que las políticas nacionales han modificado los incentivos de precios agrícolas; índices de equilibrio-parcial de las repercusiones de la política agrícola en el comercio y el bienestar económico; estimaciones de equilibriogeneral de los efectos retrospectivos y prospectivos de las reformas globales en el comercio el bienestar y la pobreza; comparaciones con estimaciones similares para Asia África y países de elevados ingresos y una discusión sobre las perspectivas de que se introduzcan reformas en las políticas agrícolas.
Impuestos diferenciales a las gasolinas y sus efectos en la demanda de automóviles
La política tributaria sobre los combustibles en Chile siempre ha mantenido impuestos menores para las gasolinas que para el diésel. Como resultado la fracción de automóviles con motor diésel ha crecido considerablemente. Un 20% de las emisiones de motores diésel equivalen al 80% de las de motores a gasolinas lo que incide en la magnitud de las externalidades vinculadas al uso de automóviles especialmente en ciudades como Santiago con altos niveles de contaminación. En este trabajo se estima el efecto del diferencial de impuestos a los combustibles en la demanda de automóviles. Los resultados denotan elasticidades de la demanda por automóviles a diésel de 34 y 21 respecto del precio del automóvil y del diferencial de impuestos. Estas magnitudes permiten implementar cambios tributarios que reduzcan significativamente las emisiones igualando las tasas de impuestos para las gasolinas y el diésel y estableciendo un impuesto específico a los automóviles con motor diésel.
El programa Tekoporã de transferencias monetarias de Paraguay: Un debate sobre métodos de selección de beneficiarios
Se analizan aquí métodos alternativos de selección de beneficiarios para el programa de transferencias monetarias condicionadas de Paraguay Tekoporã. La principal disyuntiva surge entre un índice multidimensional de calidad de vida y un análisis de prueba de medios. Se evalúa el desempeño relativo de esas dos alternativas. Las simulaciones sugieren que modificar el mecanismo de selección —sustitución del índice de calidad de vida por un análisis de prueba de medios—no ofrece ventajas en eficiencia y eficacia del programa. Si se pretende llegar más eficazmente a los pobres lo óptimo es mantener el actual mecanismo de selección con un umbral más alto y si se busca aliviar la pobreza extrema el mayor impacto en eficiencia se logra también mediante el índice de calidad de vida pero con un umbral más bajo. No obstante un umbral más alto puede ser muy beneficioso en cobertura sin incremento sustancial de la filtración.
El Mercosur como plataforma de exportación para la industria automotriz
La industria automotriz mundial está dominada por unas pocas empresas multinacionales que diseñan las estrategias a nivel global y regional. Si las estrategias regionales prevalecieran sobre las globales el Mercado Común del Sur (Mercosur) podría transformarse en una plataforma de exportación competitiva. En este artículo se examina hasta qué punto los acuerdos de comercio para la industria automotriz establecidos en el Mercosur promovieron que la región se transformara en una plataforma de exportación para el resto del mundo. Se emplean datos de comercio bilateral del período 1991-2005 y modelos de gravedad para evaluar la creación de comercio y la diversificación del mercado de exportación de la industria automotriz. Los resultados muestran que hasta 2005 los acuerdos del Mercosur no convirtieron a la región en una plataforma exportadora para los mercados exteriores aunque contribuyeron a la creación de comercio intrarregional.
Dinamismo tecnológico e inclusión social en América Latina: Una estrategia de desarrollo productivo basada en los recursos naturales
En este trabajo se propone una estrategia para dinamizar el desarrollo en América Latina aprovechando las oportunidades específicas del contexto actual y las ventajas que ofrece la región. Se analizan brevemente las características de la globalización y los rasgos del paradigma tecnoeconómico de la revolución de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (tic) para definir las nuevas posibilidades de mercado de posicionamiento en redes globales y de opciones tecnológicas. Desde esa perspectiva se identifican las industrias de procesos basadas en recursos naturales como un espacio complementario con la especialización de Asia en industrias de ensamblaje. Dada la baja tasa de empleo de aquellas industrias se propone una estrategia dual para promover también la creación de riqueza “desde abajo” aprovechando la nueva flexibilidad en diversidad tecnológica transporte y comercio. El propósito es estimular el debate y la experimentación en políticas y señalar direcciones de investigación al respecto.
La crisis financiera y económica de 2008 y su repercusión en el pensamiento económico
La crisis financiera y económica de 2008 tuvo múltiples consecuencias en los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Trastocó el desempeño de las economías y puso en duda paradigmas que habían orientado la política económica en la mayoría de los países. Asimismo exacerbó crecientes divergencias entre puntos de vista surgidos incluso antes de la crisis. Algunas de esas divergencias son de carácter ideológico pero otras obedecen a enfoques antagónicos sobre estrategias económicas. Entre los factores de diferenciación se encuentran primero el papel del Estado y su relación con el mercado y segundo la naturaleza y alcance de la inserción en la economía global. Aquí se abordan algunos de los rasgos de diferenciación las tensiones que generan y el futuro que deparan para la cooperación dentro de América Latina. También se señala que en este nuevo escenario marcado por cierta perplejidad se abren espacios inherentes al trabajo de la cepal.
Reformando las reformas previsionales: En la Argentina y Chile
En este trabajo se describen las recientes reformas previsionales en la Argentina y Chile. Con ellas se pretendió en los años ochenta y noventa mejorar la sostenibilidad fiscal de largo plazo y el diseño institucional de los sistemas trasladando parte de los riesgos sociales y económicos desde el Estado a los participantes. En años recientes las autoridades de ambos países coincidieron en identificar a la insuficiente cobertura entre los adultos mayores y al bajo nivel de los beneficios como los principales problemas de los sistemas previsionales vigentes. Debido a divergencias institucionales y políticas las respuestas fueron dispares. En Chile un proceso prolongado y participativo redundó en una amplia reforma concentrada en efectos a mediano plazo mediante ajustes cuidadosamente calibrados. En la Argentina en cambio las reformas involucraron un gran número de correcciones sucesivas con poco debate público sobre sus implicancias y efectos en la cobertura y las necesidades fiscales.
Jueces de la Revista cepal año 2009 y período enero-agosto 2010
La economía del cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe: Algunos hechos estilizados
Las principales cuestiones pendientes en las negociaciones sobre el Código de Conducta de la UNCTAD para la transferencia de tecnología
Diez años después de haber surgido en el temario internacional la cuestión de la transferencia de tecnología se vislumbra un consenso entre las partes interesadas —tanto los proveedores como los importadores de tecnología—en el sentido de que:
América Latina: Sistemas financieros y financiamiento de la inversión. Diagnósticos y propuestas
Con el fin de hacer propuestas tendientes a fortalecer el financiamiento de la inversión en América Latina en este trabajo se examinan las principales características de sus sistemas financieros. Primero se efectúa un diagnóstico de los sistemas bancarios los mercados accionarios los bonos y los flujos financieros externos respecto de su capacidad para apoyar la inversión. Luego se analizan los principales factores de índole macro y microeconómica así como ciertos rasgos estructurales que han determinado un bajo grado de desarrollo financiero y la falta de adecuación de los sistemas a las necesidades de financiamiento de la inversión. Sobre la base de estos antecedentes se realizan propuestas orientadas a elevar la capacidad de los sistemas financieros para apoyar la inversión en empresas de todo tamaño pero también se proponen lineamientos para favorecer el acceso al crédito de largo plazo de aquellas de menor tamaño.
The case for convergence: Assessing regional income distribution in Asia and the Pacific
This paper considers income inequality in Asia and the Pacific examining whether there has been an increase or decrease in income inequality among countries in the region in recent decades. By analysing the position of countries’ GDP per capita relative to that of a reference economy (Australia) the study finds that between the years 1970 and 2014 most of the region’s less affluent countries were able to catch up in relative terms allowing them to slowly move up the income matrix towards higher tier groups. Subregional examination reveals that most of the income convergence in the Asia-Pacific region was due to exceptional economic growth in East and North-East Asia and to a lesser extent in South-East Asia. While the paper shows that relative income differences between countries in the region have fallen since the 1970s it points to the need for differentiating between relative and absolute measures of inequality. Insufficient convergence and substantial initial differences in GDP per capita have meant that despite a decline in relative inequality absolute differences in average income have grown during the same period.
Situation and prospects of the Latin American economy in 1975
After describing the economic recession which came to a head in 1975 and examining some overall indicators this article analyses the most important underlying causes of the recession. Two interrelated causes are particularly worthy of note: firstly the deterioration of the economic situation of the centres and secondly the sharper contradiction between the growing demand for imports required by the prevail ing type of growth and the capacity to produce the foreign exchange necessary to pay for them and to cope with an increasing volume of financial services.
What impedes structural transformation in Asia?
Structural transformation – the movement of workers from low productivity to high productivity activities – is an essential ingredient of inclusive growth. In the present paper evidence on why the pace of structural transformation has differed widely across countries in Asia is reviewed with a specific focus on China India and Thailand. It is argued that government failures relating to the functioning of labour land and product markets and market failures relating to coordination of investment credit market imperfections and human capital formation have been the primary causes of the slow pace of structural transformation in several Asian countries. In the paper it is suggested that emphasis be placed on reforming policies that impede the functioning of labour land and product markets and strengthening industrial and education policies to tackle specific market failures pertaining to investment coordination and human capital formation.
Power and development styles
This article makes a critical analysis of the various ways in which the concept of styles of development has been used especially by those participating in the recent efforts to shape a unified approach to development. First of all it briefly summarizes the main stages in the evolution of recent thinking on this matter beginning with development strategies defined from a strictly economic point of view. It goes on to describe how social aspects — education health housing social security etc. — were gradually added while more recently attempts have been made to incorporate elements of a sociological and political nature. Finally a critical analysis is made of some of these attempts (especially those based on an analysis of the agents of development) and the article concludes with a definition of the concept of styles of development and an enumeration of the criteria which should be used as a guide in their analysis.
Price co-movements, commonalities and responsiveness to monetary policy: Empirical analysis under indian conditions
This study aims to empirically establish the co-movement of price indices of seemingly unrelated commodities suggesting that the Central Bank should not decouple fluctuation in the national price index into volatile and core components. An attempt is also made to understand whether monetary policy can influence the factors responsible for price fluctuations in the states of India. The study becomes especially relevant under Indian conditions where flexible inflation targeting has been adopted by the Reserve Bank of India (Central Bank of India) and achieving the targeted inflation is a primary concern of the Indian government. The results of the empirical analysis clearly reveal that unrelated price indices co-move in India and that monetary policy initiatives fail to influence the common factors of the states of India. The empirical results have crucial implications for the Reserve Bank of India and as such a conscious effort is needed to enable policy to influence the price indices of the states of India.
A new Latin America in a new international capital market
The timeliness of another look at the development prospects and policy options for Latin America can hardly be disputed. Another shock from a significant increase in the price of petroleum is adding to the burdens of a world economy already mired in stagflation. The recent UNCTAD meeting has not produced a common programme for accelerating and spreading economic development: on the contrary divisions among and between the industrialized and developing nations have widened. Even the conclusion of the Tokyo Round has tailed to evoke enthusiasm among the Group of 77.
Envisioning tax policy for accelerated development in India
The objective of the present paper is to demonstrate that despite several years of reform the tax-GDP ratio in India is well below international standards and has been static over the last decade. Based on a crosscountry analysis of tax-GDP ratios in 115 countries over the period 2005-2015 an estimate is made of the extent of under-taxation in India. Considering that children in the age group of 0-14 years constitute about 40 per cent of the population of 1.3 billion in India in the paper it is argued that the tax-GDP ratio must be raised to enhance allocation to education health care and physical infrastructure to ensure demographic dividends by providing the increasing workforce with productive employment opportunities. The reforms needed to raise the revenue productivity of the tax system while taking into account the best practice approach to tax reform are identified in the paper.
Contract farming, agriculture productivity and poverty reduction: Evidence from tea estates in Viet Nam
Interest in contract farming is increasing because of its potential as an alternative channel for linking producers to international markets. However there is limited knowledge on contract farming of tea production in Viet Nam especially in more inaccessible provinces where tea production plays an important role in generating employment improving livelihood and reducing poverty. In the present paper the impact of contract farming on productivity is reviewed in Pho Tho province a major tea production area that has not been the focus of any other studies. Using survey data an analysis is conducted on the factors affecting tea productivity and the impact of contract farming on tea productivity in the province. The results indicate that the impact of factors on tea productivity is ambiguous. They also indicate that technical efficiency of tea production of contracted farmers is higher than that of other types of farmers by almost 5 per cent and that contract farming has a positive influence on tea productivity in the province. Because of different climatic conditions the results from this study are not generalizable across Viet Nam but they can be applied in the Northern midlands and mountainous areas.
The energy challenge
The subject of styles of development is not foreign to us nor has it only recently become one of CEPAL’s concerns; it has been one for some time. Originally serving as an analytical category to dispel the anxiety of economists over the social failure or inefficiency of growth processes it later acquired elements developed in the expanded international discussion of the various dimensions of development. The debate on development has thus been forced to follow the pronouncements of scientists which were publicized at a very opportune moment indeed by the work of the Club of Rome through which d\e discussion on the meaning for humanity of the depletion of natural resources or the appearance of physical restrictions on the process of economic growth was brought up at the international level. These facts implied not only a scientific but also an economic social and political challenge and at those levels the need to examine the styles of development which exert irrational pressure on natural resources and challenge physical restrictions was raised and discussed.
Current trends in private financing of water and sanitation in Asia and the Pacific
The present paper shows the current trends in private sector investment in the water and sanitation sector. After peaking in 2007 private investment in the water and sanitation sector has been volatile. The decline in private investment has also been accompanied by a shift in the type and size of investments taking place. Post-2007 private investment is increasingly concentrated in a few large and wealthy countries and municipalities; and are bankrolled and developed by smaller regional-based investors. This is especially worrying for low-income countries which stand to benefit the most from private investment but have been receiving less than 1 per cent of the total project allocations in the sector. The huge financing gap requires more innovative financing that can only come by attracting private sector capital to improve water and sanitation services in the Asia-Pacific region especially for the least developed and low-income emerging economies.
Measuring creative economy in Indonesia: Issues and challenges in data collection
Although creative economy is emerging as an area to be evaluated establishing a benchmark against which it can be measured is still problematic due to a range of definitional problems both conceptual and practical. In recent years many agencies and governments have invested significant effort into collecting data on creative economy but in many countries including Indonesia measuring creative economy remains a challenge. Data collection on creative economy has been conducted twice in Indonesia initially through surveys undertaken in 2016 and then in a compilation of the 2016 Economic Census. The data collection used a common classification system to identify the five-digit Indonesia Standard Industrial Classification (KBLI) regarded as creative economy. Out of a total of 1573 five-digit KBLI codes there are 223 which are identified as creative economy activities. However this approach remains unstandardized in terms of concept definitions data collection procedures methods of analysis and common classification systems. This paper highlights the numerous limitations in current creative economy measurement in Indonesia identifying issues and challenges in data collection and creative economy measurement processes that are needed to support the Sustainable Development Goals.
Tapping capital markets and institutional investors for infrastructure development
The present paper is focused on using capital markets in the Asia-Pacific region to channel more resources for infrastructure development while mobilizing assets managed by institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies. To this end the paper is structured as follows. First an analysis of the level of capital market development in the region is conducted which indicates that markets remain at a nascent stage in many economies. Banks continue to dominate private financing in the region. Second a review is carried out on the size of institutional investors from which it is suggested that prudential regulation might need to be adjusted to enable greater infrastructure investment. Third different modalities for investors seeking infrastructure exposure are highlighted and initiatives launched by different countries to support the development of infrastructure-related instruments are presented. Fourth a review is made on the actions to support capital market development which is critical for greater involvement of institutional investors. Fifth ways to address constraints hindering infrastructure investments are presented. Finally the paper concludes with proposals of strategies that are adapted to each country’s circumstances and designed to further tap this source of financing for infrastructure development.
The Monetary and real effects of the financial opening up of national economies to the exterior. The case of Chile, 1975-1978
The object of this article is to describe and analyse certain aspects of Chilean short-term macroeconomic policy which have not been sufficiently investigated placing special emphasis on the financial measures applied from the end of 1973 and more specifically from the first quarter of 1975 when the so-called Economic Recovery Programme began.
Challenges in implementing decentralization of foreign direct investment management in Viet Nam — case study of the Hung Nghiep Formosa Ha Tinh Steel project in Ha Tinh province
Over the past decades an increasing number of developing countries in Asia have experimented with decentralization in varying degrees to achieve good governance and promote democracy. In Viet Nam even though decentralization has been limited to de-concentration (or administrative decentralization) foreign direct investment (FDI) management is vigorously decentralized at the provincial level and has proven to be problematic. In one instance it led to an environmental disaster in 2016. The objective of the present paper is to explore the factors resulting in ineffective decentralization of FDI management in Viet Nam focusing on the challenges that the local government has been dealing with under the decentralization set-up in particular with respect to environmental protection. Drawing on the case study of the Hung Nghiep Formosa Ha Tinh Steel project in Ha Tinh province it is argued that Viet Nam continues to lack the essential prerequisites for effective decentralization. It is the time for Viet Nam to reconsider the policy of decentralization in the area of FDI management. Bearing in mind that economic development is vital it should go hand in hand with environment protection in order to ensure the country’s sustainable development.
Factors influencing maternal health care in Nepal: The role of socioeconomic interaction
This paper relies on an extensive data set on Nepalese families to examine factors influencing the extent to which maternal health care is provided.
Women’s empowerment among married women aged 15 to 49 in Myanmar
The present study entails an investigation of the empowerment of married women aged 15 to 49 in Myanmar from socioeconomic and demographic perspectives based on data from the Myanmar Demographic and Health Survey 2015-16. The dimensions of women’s empowerment are categorized into two parts: women’s control over their earnings and women’s participation in household decision-making (decisions on major household purchases visits to family or relatives their health care; and the well-being of their children). These two dimensions are combined to create an index of women’s empowerment. A binary logistic regression is used by means of odds ratios to assess the relationship between women’s level of empowerment and their socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Overall the findings of the study show that a higher empowerment level is associated with women’s employment increased age urban residence a higher educational attainment a higher wealth quintile and a lower level of husband’s education. In addition women that have one child or up to four children are more likely to have a higher level of empowerment than women with no children. About three fourths of the women in the sample live in rural areas. Among those women the ones with a higher level of empowerment are more educated employed and have higher household income. Generating employment opportunities for women and educating women are important factors that can lead to an increase in women’s income and accordingly help raise the levels of women’s empowerment.
Measuring autonomy: Evidence from Bangladesh
The search for rigorous transparent and domain-specific measures of empowerment that can be used for gender analysis is ongoing. This paper explores the added value of a new measure of domain-specific autonomy. This direct measure of motivational autonomy emanates from the “selfdetermination theory” (Ryan and Deci 2000). We examine in detail the Relative Autonomy Index (RAI) for individuals using data representative of Bangladeshi rural areas. Based on descriptive statistical analyses we conclude that the measure and its scale perform broadly well in terms of conceptual validity and reliability. Based on an exploratory analysis of the determinants of autonomy of men and women in Bangladesh we find that neither age education nor income are suitable proxies for autonomy. This implies that the RAI adds new information about individuals and as such could represent a promising avenue for further empirical exploration as a quantitative yet nuanced measure of domain-specific empowerment.
Latin America, from boom to crisis: Macroeconomic policy challenges
This article analyses the most recent phase of growth in Latin America lasting from 2003 to late 2008 and the way the different policies applied in this period lessened its countries’ vulnerability and gave them greater macroeconomic policy space to confront the international crisis than in other negative shocks of the past. In addition it briefly surveys the main countercyclical fiscal monetary financial and exchange-rate policy measures applied in the region’s economies to mitigate and reverse the effects of the crisis. It concludes by discussing post-crisis macro policy challenges in the region.
Raúl Prebisch and the dilemma of development in the globalised world
Globalization poses both challenges and opportunities. Prebisch confronted this development dilemma in the global world and left three messages which form the great legacy of his work. Firstly central countries form visions of the world order that serve their own interests; and peripheral countries need to rebel against this theoretical framework to resolve the dilemma. Secondly it is possible to transform reality and achieve a symmetrical non-subordinate relationship with the world’s power centres. Thirdly the transformation requires a fundamental change in productive structures to incorporate knowledge into economic and social activity since this is the fundamental instrument of development. These messages remain fully current to this day.
Styles of development in Latin America
The discussion of styles of development has been complicated by the improper use of this and other associated terms. In order to avoid misunderstandings this article starts by examining the concepts of system and structure and on this basis goes on to define a style of development as “the way in which human and material resources are organized and assigned within a particular system with the object of solving such questions as what goods and services to produce; how; and for whom”. More specifically it notes two sets of features of such styles: (a) those which make up the structural basis of the production apparatus especially the sectoral structure of the product and employment the various technological strata and the predominant type of external relationship and (b) the dynamic elements of the system which are revealed by analysing the level and composition of demand and its underlying basic factors namely the level and distribution of income. These two sets of features are closely linked by a circle of mutual cause and effect.
Growth and concentration among the leading business groups in Mexico
This article discusses various hypotheses relating to the origin and operation of business groups in Mexico and it proposes a model to explain the sources of their total asset growth. It highlights their growing contribution to Mexican gdp but notes that their shares of employment and profits are smaller. Over time sales and assets have clearly tended to become more concentrated in the largest groups. The paper concludes that the main financing sources for asset growth between 2005 and 2007 were firstly debt and secondly capital contributions from shareholders. It also finds that the leading groups invest discretely over time and tend to “overinvest” to block the entry of other competitors.
Meeting on a new Latin America in a changing world economy
The essays reproduced below were presented at a small informal and high-level conference on the theme of “A New Latin America in a Changing World Economy” held at the Belmont Conference Center near Washington D.C. on 25-26 June 1979.
Contributory factors towards sustainability of bank-linked self-help groups in India
The present study focuses on the Indian flagship financial inclusion scheme – the Self Help Group-Bank Linkage Programme which successfully leverages the social collateral concept and the vast network of bank branches in India to deliver financial services to small cohesive and participatory women’s self-help groups. To develop a deeper understanding of the topic of sustainability of self-help groups we propose a framework that conceptualizes sustainability by integrating the financial and organizational aspects of functioning of self-help groups. Sustainability is assessed in the light of the group’s performance (on set of indicators) with respect to the primary objective of the Self Help Group-Bank Linkage Programme which is financial intermediation. Subsequently we ascertain the effect of plausible contributory factors related to group management practices on the sustainability of self-help groups. The results of regression analysis on primary data captured from a survey of 170 self-help groups show that such factors as equitable access to credit group savings growth in savings loan utilization in income generation activities members depositing a savings contribution or loan installment on each other’s behalf and distance from bank contribute significantly to group sustainability. Accordingly designing suitable measures to monitor and improve group governance and management practices would be a critical policy intervention.
The economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stylized facts
Notes on integration
It is argued in these notes that a number of factors together with the current problems in the world economy tend to make integration appear less important than it really is and to reduce its chances of success so that a clear interpretation and evaluation — not as yet available — is called for.
Interpretative summary
Latin America stands at the treshold of the 1980s as the most highly industrialized region in the Third World. Because of concern in industrial countries over the increasing competitive capacity of some developing countries in the production and export of manufactures Latin America’s essential thrust is often perceived by those outside the region as based on its new industrial capability.
Latin America and the international monetary system: some comments and suggestions
In this paper I intend to emphasize aspects of the present system of international economic relations in the monetary and financial area that create difficulties for an adequate insertion of Latin America in the world economy. I do not propose to make a comprehensive study of all transfers of resources between developed and developing countries.
Fiscal policy in times of crisis: macroeconomic effects of the primary surplus
Trade unions in the “South” in the era of globalization
This article examines the effects of globalization on the trade union movement in developing countries (the “South”). It concludes first that globalization has been asymmetrical: much further-reaching for trade in goods than for capital flows weak for technology transfer and very limited in migratory flows. Second it examines the role and economic repercussions of labour unions. It finds that contrary to the orthodox view these have little negative impact on employment but do significantly reduce wage inequalities. In view of the shift in the South since the 1980s away from development strategies based on import substitution aimed at domestic markets and towards export-oriented strategies the final section proposes new tasks and priorities for unions that are more consistent with this strategic reorientation both at the national and international levels as well as within firms.
From national to local economic development: theoretical issues
Deaths at sea in the Pacific Islands: Challenges and opportunities for civil registration and vital statistics systems
Accurate and reliable death statistics produced by civil registration and vital statistics systems are essential for health planning and programme evaluation. The quality of death registration data in Pacific island countries and territories remains suboptimal. Data on deaths occurring at sea are especially limited. While coastal and oceanic activities are the norm and essential to the livelihoods of Pacific island populations such activities pose risks for accidents at sea especially those involving small-scale vessels. In this paper the scale of deaths at sea associated with small vessels in three Pacific island countries or territories over the period 2008-2017 is investigated using data from the health civil registry and police and fisheries departments and reports produced by national statistics offices ministries of health the Pacific Community the World Health Organization and media sources. Data on deaths at sea were found to be fragmented among multiple sources and missing key information on age sex and cause. Standardized procedures for reporting deaths and accidents at sea and harmonized data sharing between local communities and government agencies are urgently needed to improve civil registration and vital statistics systems and sea safety in the Pacific island subregion.
The Economic Impact of Migration in the Russian Federation: Taxation of Migrant Workers
The article contains an outline of migration and taxation in the Russian Federation. The characteristics of migration the legal and regulatory situation of migrant workers with regard to taxation actual practices in this regard and the steps required to bridge the gap between potential tax payments from migrants and actual taxation practices are considered. Attention is paid to the reasons for irregular migration and informal employment from the points of view of both employers and migrant workers. Finally overall conclusions and policy recommendations are provided for improving the situation and decreasing irregular migration and tax underpayment.
Remittances in North and Central Asian Countries: Enhancing Development Potential
The article addresses the impacts of remittances in recipient countries in North and Central Asia noting the high level of dependence of many countries of the subregion on remittances. While remittances are found to produce positive short-term benefits related to the reduction of transitory poverty they also can contribute to negative impacts such as “Dutch Disease” dollarization public and private moral hazard. Few recipients make use of formal means of saving remittances due to the lack of dedicated remittance-backed products low levels of development of and trust in the financial sector and lack of financial literacy among recipients of remittances. Measures to address this situation are proposed and assessed for their relevance to countries of the subregion.
Impact of Remittance Outflows on Sending Economies: The Case of the Russian Federation
The literature on remittance flows has relatively little information on the impacts of remittance outflows on countries. The Russian Federation consistently ranks among the top remittance senders in the world however the Russian case remains a largely unstudied area. This article addresses this gap. The findings show that remittance outflows are still very small compared with GDP and that the Russian economy will continue to need foreign labour. So-called push factors in neighbouring countries will also continue to make the Russian Federation an attractive workplace for foreign workers. The authors encourage the Government of the Russian Federation to take pre-emptive measures for both political and economic reasons such as offering more investment opportunities for expatriate workers.
Gender Dimension of Migration from Central Asia to the Russian Federation
The article considers the relationship between migration from Central Asia to the Russian Federation and gender relations. In particular the paper describes the age-sex composition of the migration flows from three countries of the subregion (Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan) and discusses the case of Kyrgyzstan with its active female migration. Male migrants are more often employed in construction and are paid more than female migrants who work mostly in trade and services. However men and women show almost no difference in complying with migration laws vulnerability in interactions with the state relations with employers and apartment owners as well as transnational practices. The article also considers possibilities for family reunification and gendered differences in inter-ethnic communication. The article concludes that further studies are required and that assistance mechanisms are required for women who do not receive financial assistance from their migrant husbands. The article also finds that migrants’ sexual and reproductive behaviour is characterized by limited access to information about risks and also requires thorough study.
Dynamics of structural transformation in South Asia
External sector liberalization, financial development and income in South Asia
The paper provides an analysis on the impact of external sector openness and financial sector development on per capita income in the South Asian economies of Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka. For the annual series from 1980 to 2015 the instrumental variable model using a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach is estimated. The results show that liberalizing the external sector raises per capita income conditional on the level of financial sector development. The large-economy influence analysis shows that India will benefit the most from external sector liberalization and other economies involved in this study still need to focus on financial sector development as opposed to on liberalizing capital flows. It further indicates that premature external liberalization in small and poor economies tends to be beneficial to the large neighbouring economy which in this case is India leading to resource exploitation. Accordingly unless financial markets and institutions are strong enough to effectively deal with domestic resource mobilization opening up the external sector alone may impede the economic development process.
Impact of food inflation on headline inflation in India
A commonly held belief in the 1970s was that price indices rise because of temporary noise and then revert after a short interval (Cecchetti and Moessner 2008). Accordingly policy should not respond to the inflation because of these volatile components of the price indices. This led to the development of the concept of core inflation (Gordon 1975) which is headline inflation excluding food and fuel inflation. It was strongly believed that in the long run headline inflation converges to core inflation and that there are no second round effects (that is an absence of core inflation converging to headline inflation). In recent years however major fluctuations in food inflation have occurred. This has become a major problem in developing countries such as India where a large portion of the consumption basket of the people are food items. Against this backdrop in the present paper an attempt is made to measure the second round effects stemming from food inflation in India using the measure of Granger causality in the frequency domain of Lemmens Croux and Dekimpe (2008). The results of empirical analysis show significant causality running from headline inflation to core inflation in India and as a result the prevalence of the second round effects. They also show that food inflation in India is not volatile and that it feeds into the expected inflation of the households causing the second round effects. This calls for the Reserve Bank of India to put greater effort in anchoring inflation expectations through effective communication and greater credibility.
Valuing the digital economy of New Zealand
The present paper provides estimates of the value of the digital economy of New Zealand through the use of the supply-use tables. By design no changes are made to the production boundary as the products being assessed are already included within the production boundary and gross domestic product (GDP). The approach is a practical attempt at using the framework first presented in the paper entitled “Measuring digital trade: towards a conceptual framework” and in particular the “nature” component of the framework. This is extended to the whole economy to identify “digital” transactions in the country’s National Accounts Commodity Classification. The main finding from this paper is that the “digitally ordered” and “digitally delivered” aspects of the framework were able to be broadly applied. However the significant material assumptions and the broad nature of the product classification at the aggregate level meant that our estimates were not of high quality. For the year ending March 2015 the estimate of the value of gross output of New Zealand that can be delivered digitally was 27.9 billion New Zealand dollars (NZ$) (US$18.8 billion) while for digitally ordered gross output it was NZ$109.2 billion
Cheating the government: Does taxpayer perception matter?
Do people cheat because they can get away with it or because they feel that the rules are unfair? This paper addresses this question in the context of tax evasion. Specifically taxpayer perception is incorporated into a widely used consumption-based method for estimating income tax evasion. Compared to the standard method which distinguishes taxpayers only by their occupational or income type as a way of measuring their “ability” to misreport income the refined method introduces taxpayers who may be “able but unwilling” to cheat because they feel fairly treated with respect to public services and as compared to other taxpayers. Applied to a longitudinal data for the Republic of Korea (2007–2015) the standard method yields a uniform tax evasion rate of 13 per cent but the refined method provides a range of 7 to 25 per cent based on taxpayer perception. This implies that strategies for improving tax compliance must be tailored to different motivations for tax evasion.
The major unresolved issues in the negotiations on the UNCTAD Code of Conduct for the transfer of technology
Ten years after the appearance on the international agenda of the issue of technology transfer a consensus seems to be emerging among the parties concerned —both technology suppliers and technology importers— that:
The impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality: a panel Autogressive Distributed Lag approach for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation developing economies
In the present paper the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on income inequality in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies is investigated by using annual data for the period 1990–2015. The variables used are the Gini coefficient FDI inflows gross domestic product (GDP) per capita trade openness and human capital. Also panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and panel heterogeneous non-causality tests are used in this study. The panel ARDL results suggest that in the long run FDI inflows decrease income inequality. This supports the argument that encouraging FDI inflows does not harm the distribution of income in APEC economies. The results also confirm that GDP per capita and trade openness help reduce income inequality while human capital widens income inequality. The results from this study suggest that APEC authorities could implement sound policies to attract more FDI as evidence indicates that those inflows would narrow income inequality in APEC economies.
The export of manufactures
The development of the manufacturing sector has an important role to play in Latin America in relation to a long list of economic variables all of which aim at changing the economic characteristics of the region in aspects such as the diversification of production Structure of employment and production growth of income and the average wage and attenuation of the fluctuations in prices and export earnings as will be seen in the following pages. Hence all measures tending to develop and consolidate this sector whether through import substitution or exports of manufactures merit special attention in the economic policy of the Latin American countries and the developing countries in general.
International economic reform and income distribution
Latin America on the threshold of the 1980s
With the end of the 1970s at hand by way of drawing up a general balance the author sketches the main features of Latin American development in the recent past and notes the main challenges which the region will have to face in the years to come. He begins by recognizing that since the war and especially during the 1960s and the beginning of the present decade Latin America achieved vigorous economic growth but he stresses that this did not succeed in solving some of the most serious social problems while it also brought with it a growing internationalization of the economies of the region with a consequent increase in their external vulnerability. Furthermore towards the middle of the 1970s there was a reversal of the expansive cycle as a result of the flagging performance of the central economies the changes in the international prices of some goods especially oil and the internal difficulties faced by the national development patterns themselves.
Mortgage loans and access to housing for low-income households in Latin America
On the basis of a study on mortgage loan options available in eight Latin American countries this article identifies two pending tasks for most of the countries: the need to make long-term funds available to mitigate the risk of a mismatch of maturities and rates and the need to harmonize profitability criteria for lenders with the criterion of access to credit for the low-income population. The paper recommends the creation of linkages between the housing finance market and the capital market through secondary mortgage markets for which the housing finance market must use instruments other than subsidies. In addition the paper proposes a number of options to ensure that the State helps to create mortgage markets that will provide the low-income population with better access to housing.
The relations between different levels of government in Argentina
This article deals with the fiscal and financial relations between the national government and the provincial governments in Argentina during the last 15 years identifying the factors which help to explain the high degree of conflictivity of those relations. In view of the institutional roots of the conflict a historical review is made in order to place the recent problems and future discussion in a long-term context. First of all the development of federalism in Argentina and the evolution of the various forms of autonomy of the provinces is examined followed in the central section of the document by a review of the options that have dominated the changes in the functions and incomes of the different levels of government in recent decades. Those options have to do not only with the distribution of taxes but also with the process of decentralization and the changes in functions among levels of government.
Public-debt management: The Brazilian experience
This paper analyses public-debt management in Brazil and considers the main recent theoretical models and the possible effect that the strategy adopted by the Treasury from 1999 onwards could have on the base interest rate. The findings show that the public-debt-management strategy adopted by Brazil was based on the recommendations of Calvo and Guidotti (1990). The average maturity of public debt the proportion of shares linked to the Special System of Clearance and Custody (SELIC) and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio all play a significant role in determining the base interest rate. Government efforts to restructure public-debt maturities and reduce the negative effect on the interest rate are key in this regard.
Less advanced sectors in the Latin American fertility transition
Demographic change in Latin America has been driven by the behaviour of the middle and upper strata. Given that fertility and mortality in these groups are now relatively low. future changes will mainly come from the behaviour of less advanced sectors. This paper analyses the contribution of these less advanced groups to the decline in fertility distinguishing between the “distribution effect” and the “rates effect’. In less advanced sectors the desired number of children is lower than the actual number with early marriage and limited use of modern contraceptives continuing to be the rule. Even so these groups have entered the demographic transition. A number of countries have recently seen falls in their fertility rates due to the contribution of women with low levels of education: in the late transition countries behaviour is heterogeneous while in the advanced transition countries the greatest contribution is being made by women with primary education.
The human capital endowment of Latin America and the Caribbean
Although there are a great many theoretical and empirical studies which use the concept of human capital there is no generally accepted definition of this term and in many cases it is simply equated with formal education. This article will try to clarify the concept of human capital more precisely with special reference to the ways in which it can be acquired. It will also provide an international indicator that takes account of all the shades of meaning of the definition proposed here which are usually left out of the traditional indicators. Thus the proposed indicator will take into account health formal and informal education and experience. Analysis of the human capital endowments of the Latin American and Caribbean countries reveals a certain backwardness with respect to other regions. It should be noted however that there are big differences between countries although these have been reduced in the last few decades through a process of regional convergence.
The market and water management reform in Peru
This article examines the unsuccessful attempts made in the 1990s to introduce a market for water in Peru. This reform was thwarted because market operations were identified with water rights privatization even though a market can perfectly well operate on a basis other than that of private rights with the State retaining full ownership of the resource. The argument made here is that if these shortcomings were corrected the creation of a water market would be desirable to improve allocation and management of water and to deal with the increasingly serious difficulties associated with the administration of water access the lack of investment incentives and serious problems of efficiency and equity. The economic advantages and disadvantages of a water market are analysed as are the legal and regulatory prerequisites for promoting the kind of market that would really improve water allocation in the increasingly necessary institutional reform of this sector in Peru.
Spatial segregation, employment and poverty in Montevideo
This article looks at two processes that are affecting the characteristics of poverty in the city of Montevideo: the weakening of lower-skilled workers’ attachments to the labour market and the growing concentration of such workers in neighbourhoods with a high density of poverty. While far from conclusive the results suggest the advisability of further research into the relationship between changes in the social morphology of cities and the segmentation of their labour markets. If further research confirms both a tendency towards growing polarization in the spatial distribution of social classes in cities and the presence of feedback mechanisms reinforcing the social isolation of residents in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods it will be safe to say that these processes if not effectively countered will irreversibly widen the already excessive inequalities that affect large Latin American cities.
The influence of capital origin on Brazilian foreign trade patterns
This article aims to determine whether the geographical pattern of the external trade of foreign-owned enterprises in Brazil differs from that of domestic enterprises and whether in the case of foreign enterprises the region of origin of their capital is an important factor in determining that pattern both in terms of the origin and destination of their imports and exports and with regard to the technological content of the pattern. The methodology employed was panel analysis applied to a representative set of enterprises using trade data broken down by region for 1989 1997 and 2000.
The globalization of the health-care industry: Opportunities for the Caribbean
The globalization of the health-care industry is proceeding. It is being driven by the high cost of health care in the developed countries compounded by the steep rise in demand for health care as a result of the ageing of populations in these countries and the increasing availability of health-care services in developing countries at less expensive rates than in developed countries. Increasingly patients are sourcing health care globally and opting for the most affordable treatment. In a growing number of fields of treatment the most cost-effective option is travelling to a developing country. The provision of health care has significant potential for those developing countries that can provide world-class services and facilities at internationally competitive prices. The proximity of the Caribbean to the United States gives it an additional advantage in meeting the rapidly growing demand for health care originating in that country.
Towards an integrated vision for dealing with instability and risk
Evolution of the link between selective anti-poverty policies and social sectors policies
This conceptual and historical analysis of paradigmatic social policy experiences in the region reveals some fundamental landmarks in the evolution of the link between selective anti-poverty policies and social sector policies. These landmarks are associated with major changes in targeting policies and with a number of universal social policy reforms. Special attention is given to the redistribution-with-growth approach; subsequent reductionist targeting proposals which have undergone shifts in conceptual and effective terms over the last two decades; and the concern for interaction with social sectors displayed by some present-day conditional transfer programmes which stand out in the region because of their scale. Two related trends observed in fields that go beyond the effort to combat poverty are also analysed: the reductionist social risk management proposal and in the opposite direction the introduction of health guarantees.
The accumulation process and agrofood networks in Latin America
Within the context of the evolution of world markets and new models of trade openness several agrofood product lines in MERCOSUR countries have shown strong dynamism in recent decades becoming focal points (axes) of accumulation and economic growth. The expansion of production and the higher levels of competitiveness achieved have been based on the organization of these product lines in networks or complexes; on the adoption of technology packages from abroad with minimal local adaptation as part of the globalization of new paradigms; on the emergence or consolidation of groups of big firms in the main stages of these networks and on clearly defined forms of insertion in external markets. This article argues that the transnationalization of relevant segments and markets of these complexes affects the possibilities of local or regional development in particular the generation of locally dense and diversified production networks with equitable distribution of rents income and profits.
Adolescent reproduction: The case of Chile and its policy implications
Adolescent fertility and maternity are a source of concern in the Latin American and Caribbean region because they imply situations of adversity have not gone down as in other age groups and are more frequent among poor teenagers. Analysis of the micro-data from the last three censuses in Chile also shows: i) a generalized tendency for adolescent maternity to be out of wedlock; ii) the protective effect of staying in school which comes into play after passing an educational threshold which is rising with time; iii) the leading role played by the parents of the households where most adolescent mothers live and iv) the need for specific programmes and integral actions to reduce adolescent maternity since although access to information and sexual health and reproduction services avoids pregnancies it is not enough when there is a lack of alternatives to maternity or there are cultural and psychological obstacles to the proper use of contraceptive methods.
Central bank independence and its relationship to inflation
This paper builds on earlier studies of central bank independence (CBI) making a comparison of the rankings of central banks for 15 countries through three different indices. The analysis reveals that there is no shared concept of CBI and that the indices are a measure of the inflation bias. The Brazilian case is used as an example with the objective of examining the impact on inflation of an increase in independence over time as measured by Cukierman’s index. The findings indicate that CBI is a consequence of the conduct of monetary policy and that it is not an adequate framework for developing credibility.
The monetary pendulum in Mexico
First World priorities and the need for nations to coexist in harmony have given rise in each period to a set of rules constituting the international economic order. This is a shifting order in which national goals move alternatively towards and away from those of an international nature. The objective of the gold standard was to uphold monetary convertibility if necessary at the expense of national objectives. By contrast the Bretton Woods system inverted the terms of the equation by making governments responsible for employment and growth. The monetary pendulum is now swinging back again from nationalism to cosmopolitanism. In the case of Mexico owing to failures of adaptation this latest shift has translated into an all-out struggle against inflation that has brought the country to a state of chronic near-stagnation leaving it trailing in the rear of the world development process.
The technical skills of information technology workers in Argentina
This article makes an assessment of Argentina’s human resource skills in the field of information technology (IT). In various of the country’s government business and academic domains the quality and potential of domestic human resources in this area is taken for granted- a belief based on the country’s rich yet contradictory IT history but not founded on an analysis of the corresponding skills. This study aims to develop and apply a methodology to evaluate the skills of IT workers and highlight their problems and potentials using the results of an electronic survey. The current features and heterogeneity of those human resources are interpreted in the light of the progress and setbacks experienced by the activity during the course of its evolution.
Inequality in Central America in the 1990s
This study seeks to answer two questions: how and why has the distribution of labour income changed in Central America? and why does Costa Rica display greater equity? In order to answer these questions a technique based on the estimation of earnings equations is used. The direction of the changes in inequality is not uniform and depends on the indicator used. Although only Costa Rica and Guatemala show an unambiguous deterioration in the 1990s there are some phenomena common to all the labour markets studied that have contributed to increasing inequality. The most important of these is the increased dispersion of the number of hours worked caused by increasing proportions of part-time and overtime workers in all countries. There are two main reasons for the lower relative inequality in Costa Rica: education is distributed more equally and wage differences between rural and urban areas are smaller. These results suggest that public policies that universalize primary education and provide economic and social infrastructure to rural communities contribute to reducing inequality.
Brazilian fiscal institutions: The Cardoso reforms, 1995-2002
This paper looks at Brazil’s fiscal policy during the two administrations of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso: 1995-1998 and 1998-2002. It stresses that the authorities’ austere attitude was as important as institutional and structural reform for the fiscal adjustment that followed the 1998-1999 crisis. The principal cause of the fiscal deterioration in 1995-1998 was the reduction in the primary balance rather than the increase in the interest burden while the fiscal adjustment in 1999-2002 was largely due to increased revenues as primary public expenditure by the federal government continued to grow in real terms. We consider the outlook for fiscal sustainability and conclude that to preserve the country’s hard-won fiscal discipline the austere fiscal attitude shown recently by the authorities should be permanently embedded into fiscal institutions.
Celso Furtado’s contributions to structuralism and their relevance today
This article examines Celso Furtado’s three main analytical contributions to structuralism: (i) the historical-structural method which incorporates the histories of Brazil and other Latin American countries in structuralist formulations; (ii) the belief that underdevelopment in the Latin American periphery has tended to persist over long periods owing to the difficulty of overcoming underemployment and to inadequate diversification of production; and (iii) the idea that the pattern of investments in the periphery is predetermined by the composition of demand which mirrors and tends to preserve income and wealth concentration. Events in Latin America in the past twenty-five years show that Furtado’s analysis has lost none of its relevance.
Systemic governance and development in Latin America
The capacity of political regimes to formulate and implement policies in the common interest appears to be a crucial factor of development. Public institutions in Latin America are often characterized by a lack of common interest orientation. As a result most countries of the region are ill-prepared to meet the challenges of global market integration and knowledge-based development. Two approaches have been particularly influential in linking institutions to economic development: the good governance approach originally put forward by the World Bank and the systemic competitiveness approach introduced by the German Development Institute. Drawing on insights from both concepts this paper presents a framework for the assessment of reform blockades and propensities in given political systems. This is the “systemic governance” approach and it focuses on the capacity to generate and implement decisions in the common interest at all levels of the political system. In order to promote second-generation adjustment reforms the systemic character of governance has to be grasped.
A low-growth model: Informality as a structural constraint
After years of reforms and unending debate the question remains unanswered: why is Latin America not growing more? The present article approaches the subject from an unconventional perspective presenting the persistence of informality as a structural barrier to growth. As an analytical frame of reference it introduces a 2 x 2 model of growth in which the economy comprises just two sectors the formal and the informal. The model presents the links between the growth pattern of the formal sector and the dynamics of the informal sector and between these and the pattern of growth in the overall economy. Adverse specialization patterns and an unfavourable international trade profile are perpetuating informality. Thus export-led growth most resembles an enclave model which does not even guarantee high growth since the dynamic of the informal sector which accounts for about half the urban workforce adversely affects the performance of the whole economy.
Less volatile growth? The role of regional financial institutions
The volatility of economic growth in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean has been exacerbated by a lack of suitable instruments for smoothing external shocks. Difficulties with the provision of emergency financing and the development of financial markets capable of trading government securities that incorporate better contingency mechanisms have contributed to economic volatility. To identify routes towards progress with these two issues in the Latin American context the present article examines the role that could be played by regional and subregional financial institutions always bearing in mind that while these can supplement global institutions they cannot supplant them.
Foreign direct investment and development: The MERCOSUR experience
This article analyses the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the MERCOSUR countries in the light of key variables such as productivity foreign trade innovation and growth. The macroeconomic impact is not found to have been significant whereas the microeconomic effects seem to have been more noticeable though varied. Generally speaking the subsidiaries of transnational corporations operate at higher levels of productivity engage in more international trade and are more innovative than local companies. The indirect effects of FDI on the other hand are less clear. The sign (positive or negative) and magnitude of productivity spillovers to domestic competitors vary apparently depending on the characteristics of the local businesses and on the markets in which they operate. Finally only in Brazil is there evidence of spillover effects —although those effects have been both positive and negative— on the export activities and innovation of local companies as well as productivity spillovers from foreign subsidiaries to their national suppliers.
The new urban poverty: Global, regional and Argentine dynamics during the last two decades
This article analyses the various dimensions of the “new poverty” which emerged during the 1980s and 1990s. It begins with a review of the definitions of the term in Europe the United States and several Latin American countries. The case of Argentina is then examined paying close attention to the pauperization of the middle class in that country at several points between the mid-1970s and the crisis of 2001. Structural poverty —an older phenomenon— is used as a point of reference to describe the characteristics of the new impoverishment the adaptation strategies evolved to address it using cultural and social capital the erosion of collective social identity and the urban dimension of pauperization. The article concludes with an analysis of the transformations experienced by the new poor since the issue was first examined as well as the specific challenges it poses for public policy.
Poverty and employment in Latin America: 1990-2005
What factors led to the reduction of poverty in Latin America from 1990 onwards? This article looks into the key factors that have played a part in reducing poverty in the region including in particular employment and remuneration for work. With data from household surveys the authors discuss the ways in which changes in the working age population in its participation in economic activity in employment rates and in income from work and other sources affect the per capita incomes of families in the lowest deciles of income distribution and hence in poverty indicators.