Population and Demography
Introduction
At the halfway point of the 15-year period to implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development the outlook is grim. Despite a period of notable progress in many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) the convergence of multiple crises including climate change the COVID-19 pandemic violent conflicts and economic shocks is threatening to derail development and put further progress in peril for many countries (United Nations 2023a 2024). In recent years progress in key areas of development such as poverty alleviation reduced inequalities food security health and social protection has stagnated or reversed in many parts of the world (United Nations 2023b).
Demographic outlook for the small island developing states
The small island developing States (SIDS) are a heterogeneous group of islands and coastal states spread across the world. As of June 2023 the group is composed of 57 countries and territories with a combined population of 73.5 million. Twenty-nine SIDS are located in the Caribbean 20 in the Pacific and 8 in the Atlantic Indian Ocean and South China Sea (AIS) region. Of these 46 SIDS have small populations of less than 1 million inhabitants while Papua New Guinea and three of the Greater Antilles nations – Cuba the Dominican Republic and Haiti – are the only SIDS with more than 10 million inhabitants accounting for slightly over 60 per cent of the total population of the group in 2023.
Population Prospects of Countries in Special Situations
Tracking Demographic Change Among the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States
The report provides an up-to-date overview of major population trends in the least developed countries (LDCs) landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS) in connection with the critical development challenges they face. The groups of countries in special situations comprise 110 countries (45 LDCs 32 LLDCs and 57 SIDS) located in all regions of the world. The report focuses on differences and similarities in demographic characteristics between regional subgroups of the three categories of countries. It highlights levels and trends in population size structure and distribution mortality fertility and international migration from 2000 to 2050 while also discussing the implications of these demographic trends for achieving the relevant SDGs.
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by Lina Bassarsky Danan Gu and Thomas Spoorenberg. The authors wish to thank John Wilmoth Bela Hovy and Karoline Schmid for their inputs in reviewing the draft.
Demographic outlook for the landlocked developing countries
Nearly 640 million people worldwide lived in countries or territories that lack territorial access to the sea in 2023. Most of them 577 million resided in landlocked countries located in the less-developed regions of the world accounting for 7 per cent of the global population in 2023. About two thirds of the population of these landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) lived in Africa and almost one third in Asia. The remaining 4 per cent were located in South America (3 per cent) and Europe (1 per cent). Ethiopia with more than one third of the African LLDC population is the most populous country among LLDCs followed by Uganda. Afghanistan is the largest LLDC in Asia followed by Uzbekistan and Nepal. The Republic of Moldova and the Plurinational State of Bolivia are the countries with the largest LLDC populations in Europe and South America respectively (map 3.1).
Foreword
Today the groups of countries in special situations – constituting the least developed countries (LDCs) the landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) and the small island developing States (SIDS) – are home to an estimated 1.3 billion people representing 17 per cent of the world’s population. Even though these countries have made progress in implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development they continue to face significant challenges on their path towards a prosperous equitable and sustainable future within a context of multiple and intersecting vulnerabilities and constraints.
Demographic change and its implications for policy priorities in LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS
LDCs LLDCs and SIDS stand at the intersection of numerous opportunities and challenges for a sustainable and prosperous future. Progress toward the SDGs shows a mixed picture of both achievement and shortfalls and in some cases recent setbacks owing to the multifaceted impact of the COVID-19 pandemic conflicts disasters and displacement among others.
Demographic outlook for the least developed countries
In 2023 close to 1.2 billion people were living in the least developing countries (LDCs) accounting for about 14 per cent of the global population. More than two thirds were living in Africa and close to one third in Asia. The remaining LDCs which are located in the Pacific (Kiribati Solomon Islands and Tuvalu) and the Caribbean (Haiti) accounted together for only 1 per cent of the total LDC population. Three LDCs are among the 15 most populous countries in the world including Bangladesh (173 million) Ethiopia (127 million) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (102 million) (map 2.1).
Population prospects and sustainable development in countries in special situations: An overview
The 110 countries or areas constituting the groups of least developed countries (LDCs) landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS) face structural socioeconomic and environmental challenges in achieving sustainable development. Recently these challenges have been exacerbated by the impacts of climate change increased frequencies of environmental disasters public health emergencies conflicts and economic shocks. Most of these countries experience widespread poverty hunger and malnutrition along with limited economic diversification a lack of social protection and low human capital due to inadequate access to quality education and lifelong learning opportunities. Additionally LDCs LLDCs and SIDS are especially vulnerable to and disproportionately affected by the adverse effects of climate change environmental degradation and other disasters (United Nations 2023c). Profound socioeconomic transformation will be crucial to address these challenges and increase the resilience and adaptative capacities of these vulnerable countries in the face of various socioeconomic and environmental shocks.
State of World Population 2024
Interwoven Lives, Threads of Hope - Ending Inequalities in Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights
This year's report takes the 30th anniversary of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development as an opportunity to reflect on how far we have come in achieving sexual and reproductive health and rights for all. While the report celebrates the significant gains made it also considers who has been left out of that progress arguing that a more equitable future for all requires a renewed commitment to empowering those furthest behind.
Women are the thread
In an ideal world the advancement of women’s reproductive rights and the promotion of equitable access to sexual and reproductive health and rights would be inherently motivated by the principles of human rights and social justice. But real-world sociopolitical contexts often demand quantifiable arguments on the short-term and long-term returns on investments in such programmes. Indeed this was understood to be the case in 1994. Though the ICPD Programme of Action represented a monumental pivot away from population control policies and towards prioritizing the rights of all individuals the economic rationale nevertheless remained critical for justifying investments in these rights.
Counting every stitch
The 1994 ICPD and its resulting Programme of Action not only represented a moment of remarkable consensus around the value of universal sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights (Brown and others 2019; Sen and others 2019; Corrêa and others 2015) it also represented a powerful call for better and more transparent data – a contribution to global standards that has seldom been recognized. In fact an entire chapter of the Programme of Action Chapter XII (UNFPA 1994) is devoted to the need for “valid reliable timely culturally relevant internationally comparable data” including “gender and ethnicity-specific information”. It also called for research into the views of less-empowered groups of people and those in different cultural settings.
A work in progress
A safe birth. A choice of contraceptives. Protection from gender-based violence. More people than ever before have realized these essential life-sustaining rights. But the number of people denied these rights has not yet reached zero – as it can and as it must.
Technical notes
The statistical tables in State of World Population 2024 include indicators that track progress towards the goals of the Framework of Actions for the follow-up to the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the areas of maternal health access to education and reproductive and sexual health. In addition these tables include a variety of demographic indicators. The statistical tables support UNFPA’s focus on progress and results towards delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted every birth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled.
Unravelling inequality
The ICPD Programme of Action emerged in the aftermath of the Cold War a time of upheaval and uncertainty. That year 1994 saw both the end of apartheid in South Africa which held its first multiracial democratic election in April and the eruption of genocide in Rwanda that same month. Sweden legalized civil unions between same-sex partners – making it the third country ever to do so – as the global rate of new HIV infections was reaching its highest-ever peak (UNAIDS n.d.). The promise of collective action and the perils of failing to take such action could not have been more prominent in the minds of ICPD attendees in Cairo.