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COVID-19 and the Need for Dynamic State Capabilities: An International Comparison
Apr 2021
Working Paper
Early lessons from countries’ responses to COVID-19 show the importance of investing in a combination of both long-term capacities and dynamic capabilities in the public sector including the ability to meaningfully interact with other value creators in society such as the private sector and citizen innovators. Drawing on examples from across emerging markets this paper identifies a number of such capabilities and argues that they will be critical for governments in the aftermath of the crisis and in rebuilding economies and societies.
Mental Health of Older Persons
Jun 2024
Working Paper
This policy brief presents determinants and risk factors of poor mental health among older persons and provides a detailed overview of the prevalence of mental health disorders among older persons of different socio-demographic characteristics across the region. The policy brief highlights different policy strategies to promote protect and care for the mental health of older persons with examples contributed by Governments and civil society organizations across the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region. The policy brief also offers a checklist of effective measures to promote and protect the mental health of older persons covered in this brief.
Addressing COVID-19’s Uneven Impacts on Vulnerable Populations in Bangladesh: The Case for Shock-responsive Social Protection
Sep 2021
Working Paper
As in many countries worldwide the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its containment measures aggravated poverty in Bangladesh. Poor and vulnerable population groups were among the hardest hit. This brief draws on key findings from a UNDP Bangladesh survey on COVID-19 impacts during the pandemic’s first wave in early 2020. It covered 2500 UNDP beneficiary households (HHs) across the country. In addition to severe income shocks analysis reveals that the crisis amplified existing multidimensional vulnerabilities among HHs. Existing social safety net (SSN) programmes were inadequate to address different vulnerabilities. Against this backdrop this brief underscores the need for Bangladesh’s continued attention on reforming its social protection system to make it more employment-focused shock-responsive and universal in line with national priorities and for COVID recovery.
Mitigating Poverty: Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic
Jul 2021
Working Paper
This paper reconstructs the full welfare distributions from household surveys of 160 countries covering 96.5 percent of the global population to estimate the pandemic-induced increases in global poverty and provide information on the potential short-term effects of income-support programmes on mitigating such increases. Crucially the analysis performs a large-scale simulation by combining the welfare distributions with the database of social protection measures of Gentilini et al. (2021) and estimates such effects from 72 actual income-support programmes planned or implemented across 41 countries.
Secondary Impacts of COVID-19: Closing Civic Space in Fragile Contexts
Jul 2021
Working Paper
The direct impacts (loss of life) of COVID-19 have been global and well documented. Extreme poverty has risen for the first time in two decades and the impacts on livelihoods and vulnerable or marginalized populations have been distressing and often disproportionate. Most concerningly countries with poor infrastructure poor health and education services and weak democratic institutions have been arguably the most vulnerable to both primary and secondary impacts of COVID-19. Within this framework this brief explores the impact of COVID-19 on civic space in fragile contexts. Information from the UNDP Crisis Bureau’s Crisis Risk Dashboard (CRD) has been used to conduct the data analysis and visualizations presented below.
COVID-19, Democratic Governance and the ‘Barely Middle Class’ in Latin America: Self-ascribed Social Class and Views of the State in a Time of Pandemic
Sep 2021
Working Paper
COVID-19 broke out at a time when Latin America was already experiencing significant social unrest fueled to a large extent by growing dissatisfaction with the state of politics and the social contract more broadly. Given this context how has the pandemic impacted citizens’ views of the public sphere and opinions about democratic governance? This brief presents the results of a survey commissioned by UNDP in 10 Latin American countries in September 2020. Self-ascribed social class is used as a lens to explore differences in the perception and evaluation of state performance in the face of COVID-19 with a focus on ‘middle-class’ perspectives. Some considerations are then offered on the steps required to enhance long-term democratic resilience in the region.
Leveraging Non-traditional Datasets for Assessing Socioeconomic Impact of COVID-19 across Philippine Households
Jul 2021
Working Paper
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the Philippine economy in unprecedented ways. The country suffered a 9.6 percent contraction of its GDP in 2020 the worst on record in the post-World War II period. With the second highest cases in Southeast Asia the country continues to struggle to contain the disease and remains under various degrees of community quarantine. This policy brief examines the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic across Philippine households using non-traditional datasets particularly market research data showing fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) spending and mobility data. The paper observes differences in pandemic restrictions and recovery across different geographical areas in the country and in the pace of recovery across households belonging to different socioeconomic groups.
Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Women Migrant Workers
Jul 2021
Working Paper
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a devastating impact on every aspect of life. Facing loss of livelihoods and inadequate safety nets migrant workers in India constitute perhaps the most severely affected cohort of Indians. However the socio-economic impact on these migrant workers has a gendered dimension to it too. A survey of 10161 women migrant workers in India revealed that they were faced with the double burden of earning a livelihood and unpaid care work at home. In addition their incomes fell by more than half during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic levels. Against this backdrop we present the importance of social protection measures for Indian women migrant workers along four dimensions namely: food security cash assistance government health insurance and protection against domestic violence.
Social Capital in Paraguay: An Asset for Combatting Vulnerability During the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Sep 2021
Working Paper
Solidarity has been a hallmark of the COVID-19 pandemic response in Paraguay. Many vulnerable communities have found ways to survive in the crisis context by mobilizing support from community and volunteer networks and civil society organizations and also by accessing institutional forms of support such as cash transfer programmes. How pervasive is collective action in vulnerable territories during the pandemic? Who engages in collective action and to what end? And does it reduce vulnerability? This policy brief reports preliminary results of a survey on social capital in selected territories of Paraguay and its relationship with economic vulnerability during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The data presented provide insights into how trust and social capital have enabled collective action in vulnerable territories of Paraguay during the pandemic. This evidence can inform policy debates on how to increase resiliency and reduce vulnerability and allow us to identify design and evaluate interventions to increase access to formal and informal types of aid in vulnerable territories.
The Importance Paradox: An Analysis of the Microenterprise Landscape in Colombia
Sep 2021
Working Paper
Even though microenterprises in Colombia represent approximately 80 percent of the national productive sector accounting for 33 percent of the labor force and approximately 5 percent of the aggregated value the microenterprise segment has many problems in productivity formality and innovation compared to its bigger brothers. This is a paradox of utmost relevance as these structural problems have greatly influenced the COVID-19 impact on microenterprise one of the most affected sectors during the crisis. Taking advantage of a new detailed national microenterprise survey (EMICRON) this document sheds a light on the structural and institutional problems that affect the wellbeing of microenterprises in Colombia and characterizes the junctural impact of the COVID crisis in the sector. This document indicates that the direction of the economic recovery should not only focus on overcoming the crisis but should incorporate long-term and structural policies.
Income Support Programs and COVID-19 in Developing Countries
Sep 2021
Working Paper
The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened the livelihoods of the most vulnerable households in developing countries. In response several countries have launched income support programs (ISPs). We evaluated the likely impact of these programs on the weekly growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths across 62 developing countries between January and December of 2020. Event study results suggest that implementation of ISPs reduced the weekly growth rate of cases and deaths. A heterogeneity analysis found that ISPs seemed effective in reducing the growth of cases and deaths related to COVID-19 in middle-income countries and the growth rate of cases in low-income countries as well as those countries with high informality in the labor market. Difference-in-difference estimates using the Callaway and Sant’Anna (2020) estimation strategy indicated that ISPs decreased the COVID-19 case growth rate by 12.1 percentage points and the death growth rate by 22.9 percentage points.
Putting Fragility at the Center of Iraq's Recovery from the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Oil Crisis
Mar 2021
Working Paper
In a post-COVID-19 Iraq it will be impossible to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) or an inclusive development trajectory without tackling the multiple dimensions of fragility in the country. The fragility landscape in Iraq is challenging at best with all dimensions scoring on the high end of the scale. There is a strong imperative to work across the humanitarian development and peace (HDP) nexus with UNDP as Fragility Integrator together with all stakeholders to sustainably address priority drivers and their effects on the social contract and ensure no one is left behind. This policy brief provides recommendation of how to create the enabling environment towards a fragility-based post-COVID-19 recovery.
Adding Fuel to the Fire? Inequality and the Spread of COVID-19
Jul 2022
Working Paper
The pandemic has progressed differently across the world. Using monthly data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities we evaluate whether income inequality is an important factor in explaining cross-country differences in the spread and mortality of the virus. The results show that income inequality is positively correlated with the number of COVID-19 cases. Higher income inequality is associated with a more rapid spread of the virus and an increase in the number of cases indirectly increasing mortality rates as well. Also higher levels of inequality are associated with reduced effectiveness of social distancing measures in containing new infections. Thus elevated inequalities place societies in a more vulnerable position to confront this pandemic and more unequal countries would need more robust public responses to contain the spread of the virus.
Older Persons in Vulnerable Situations
Jun 2023
Working Paper
At any age intersecting factors such as poverty disability social isolation and exposure to abuse can increase the risk of vulnerability and weaken resilience in the case of adverse events. The COVID-19 pandemic rising inflation natural disasters and war are examples of adverse events that have disproportionately affected vulnerable persons including many older persons. Often the capacities and vulnerabilities of older persons remain invisible as their voices are less heard and their needs less known due to a lack of data and research and their insufficient involvement in decision-making. A key challenge therefore is to inform design and implement comprehensive policies that protect vulnerable older persons from adverse outcomes enhance resilience and allow them to fulfil their full potential in later life. The policy strategies presented in this Policy Brief cover the areas of income and housing health and long-term care prevention of violence abuse and neglect and social participation as well as the importance of adequate data and research and the involvement of older persons in decision-making.
Economic Growth and Social Reproduction
Sep 2015
Working Paper
This work develops a set of regimes that link structures of economic growth with those of social reproduction. These regimes are then linked to groups of countries organized by economic structure and level of development to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in gender inequality in the labour market. Social reproduction is defined in terms of the time and money it takes to produce maintain and invest in the labour force so it includes both paid and unpaid care work. The analytical emphasis is on how the distributions of production and reproduction among women men the state and capital determine investment and growth and how gender inequality is both cause and consequence of these relationships.
Investing in Free Universal Childcare in South Africa, Turkey and Uruguay
May 2019
Working Paper
This discussion paper makes the case for investing in free universal childcare services of high quality in order to reduce gender inequality in earnings and employment. It estimates the employment-generating and fiscal effects of investing in free universal childcare in three middle income countries: South Africa Uruguay and Turkey. It calculates the total annual costs of investing in high-quality childcare services that would cover the entire population of children below primary school age using parameters relevant to each national context. Results show that employment rates can be significantly increased especially for women as a result of the combined direct indirect and induced job creation. Although the total annual cost of such investment can go up to 3 to 4 per cent of GDP the net cost can be halved thanks to significant fiscal returns stemming from increased employment and earnings without changing the tax structure itself (rates and bands). Results are compared with those obtained using a similar method for the United Kingdom and show that the reach of a country’s tax system plays an important role in the funding process. The paper also estimates a theoretical fiscal break-even point based on longitudinal labour supply effects of mothers closing their lifetime employment and earning gap following such generous childcare offer. In all three countries and the United Kingdom the fiscal return on investment based on this measure is likely to outstrip the total cost of childcare for a typical mother of two children on average earnings.
The Power of Thick Data: Unveiling the Hidden Facets of COVID-19 Impact and the Next Emerging Development Issues - Country Case Study from the Republic of Moldova
Sep 2021
Working Paper
COVID-19 threw Moldovan governance into chaotic domain (in Cynefin terms) where cause and effect are unclear events are too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response and Government has to act and sense before responding. The Republic of Moldova used thick data (micro-narratives) to unveil the hidden facets of COVID’s impact. Using thick data helped to provide a more nuanced response to challenges for instance by better shaping communication strategy. Thick data should not be considered as contradicting big data but rather as complimentary and enriching sensemaking. Empowering people to reflect on their assessed anecdotal evidence helps to enrich insights.
Investing in Care: A Pathway to Gender-responsive COVID-19 Recovery
Sep 2021
Working Paper
Building on data from the Europe and Central Asia and Asia-Pacific regions this brief argues that the time to invest in the care economy is now. Such investment helps advance multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by increasing women’s labour force participation and productivity professionalizing the care sector and generating decent work for men and women reducing gender inequalities in care work and ultimately ensuring inclusive and resilient growth. The paper offers recommendations based on emerging research and new policy tools for strengthening public policies and workplace measures to recognize and redistribute unpaid care work and build a care economy as a cornerstone of social and economic recovery.
Rethinking Nature, Crisis and Complexity after the Pandemic
Jul 2021
Working Paper
The COVID-19 crisis is evolving into a long-term development emergency the scale of which is unprecedented in modern times. Among the root causes of the crisis is humanity’s breaching of the planet’s ecological boundaries. COVID-19 is likely a zoonotic disease a disease passed from animals to humans. As pressures on natural ecosystems and wildlife intensify channels of viral outbreak have accelerated in recent years as also seen in outbreaks of other zoonotic diseases such as Ebola SARS and MERS in recent years. More than ever the ability to prevent outbreaks depends on our ability to maintain healthy ecosystems and avoid the blurring of ecological boundaries.
What Assets and Innovations Can Governments Mobilize to Transform the Public Sector and Achieve the SDGs?
Oct 2024
Working Paper
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the working methods of public institutions. The urgency to respond in real time loosened institutional constraints and forced public agencies to be more agile and to experiment with alternative ways to operate accelerating innovation. Beyond the implementation of buffer measures to maintain essential public services the crisis provided opportunities for transformations in public administration that would have been challenging to pursue in “normal” times. Although this urgency presented risks of weakening the checks and balances essential for accountability it also led to the discovery of more efficient and effective ways to deliver public services and many of these may become the “new normal”. Nevertheless it is not clear that the agile decision-making experimentation and innovation observed during the pandemic will persist. This raises the question of how to foster innovation in public institutions in the absence of crises. To retain public trust governments must demonstrate they can effectively handle systemic shocks; they must demonstrate capacity to foresee problems and address them proactively before they become crises. Governments can tap into the innovations developed during the pandemic to better serve their constituents and accelerate the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
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