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Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
The economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stylized facts
Notes on integration
It is argued in these notes that a number of factors together with the current problems in the world economy tend to make integration appear less important than it really is and to reduce its chances of success so that a clear interpretation and evaluation — not as yet available — is called for.
Interpretative summary
Latin America stands at the treshold of the 1980s as the most highly industrialized region in the Third World. Because of concern in industrial countries over the increasing competitive capacity of some developing countries in the production and export of manufactures Latin America’s essential thrust is often perceived by those outside the region as based on its new industrial capability.
Latin America and the international monetary system: some comments and suggestions
In this paper I intend to emphasize aspects of the present system of international economic relations in the monetary and financial area that create difficulties for an adequate insertion of Latin America in the world economy. I do not propose to make a comprehensive study of all transfers of resources between developed and developing countries.
Fiscal policy in times of crisis: macroeconomic effects of the primary surplus
Trade unions in the “South” in the era of globalization
This article examines the effects of globalization on the trade union movement in developing countries (the “South”). It concludes first that globalization has been asymmetrical: much further-reaching for trade in goods than for capital flows weak for technology transfer and very limited in migratory flows. Second it examines the role and economic repercussions of labour unions. It finds that contrary to the orthodox view these have little negative impact on employment but do significantly reduce wage inequalities. In view of the shift in the South since the 1980s away from development strategies based on import substitution aimed at domestic markets and towards export-oriented strategies the final section proposes new tasks and priorities for unions that are more consistent with this strategic reorientation both at the national and international levels as well as within firms.
From national to local economic development: theoretical issues
Dynamics of structural transformation in South Asia
The major unresolved issues in the negotiations on the UNCTAD Code of Conduct for the transfer of technology
Ten years after the appearance on the international agenda of the issue of technology transfer a consensus seems to be emerging among the parties concerned —both technology suppliers and technology importers— that:
The export of manufactures
The development of the manufacturing sector has an important role to play in Latin America in relation to a long list of economic variables all of which aim at changing the economic characteristics of the region in aspects such as the diversification of production Structure of employment and production growth of income and the average wage and attenuation of the fluctuations in prices and export earnings as will be seen in the following pages. Hence all measures tending to develop and consolidate this sector whether through import substitution or exports of manufactures merit special attention in the economic policy of the Latin American countries and the developing countries in general.
International economic reform and income distribution
Latin America on the threshold of the 1980s
With the end of the 1970s at hand by way of drawing up a general balance the author sketches the main features of Latin American development in the recent past and notes the main challenges which the region will have to face in the years to come. He begins by recognizing that since the war and especially during the 1960s and the beginning of the present decade Latin America achieved vigorous economic growth but he stresses that this did not succeed in solving some of the most serious social problems while it also brought with it a growing internationalization of the economies of the region with a consequent increase in their external vulnerability. Furthermore towards the middle of the 1970s there was a reversal of the expansive cycle as a result of the flagging performance of the central economies the changes in the international prices of some goods especially oil and the internal difficulties faced by the national development patterns themselves.
Mortgage loans and access to housing for low-income households in Latin America
On the basis of a study on mortgage loan options available in eight Latin American countries this article identifies two pending tasks for most of the countries: the need to make long-term funds available to mitigate the risk of a mismatch of maturities and rates and the need to harmonize profitability criteria for lenders with the criterion of access to credit for the low-income population. The paper recommends the creation of linkages between the housing finance market and the capital market through secondary mortgage markets for which the housing finance market must use instruments other than subsidies. In addition the paper proposes a number of options to ensure that the State helps to create mortgage markets that will provide the low-income population with better access to housing.
The relations between different levels of government in Argentina
This article deals with the fiscal and financial relations between the national government and the provincial governments in Argentina during the last 15 years identifying the factors which help to explain the high degree of conflictivity of those relations. In view of the institutional roots of the conflict a historical review is made in order to place the recent problems and future discussion in a long-term context. First of all the development of federalism in Argentina and the evolution of the various forms of autonomy of the provinces is examined followed in the central section of the document by a review of the options that have dominated the changes in the functions and incomes of the different levels of government in recent decades. Those options have to do not only with the distribution of taxes but also with the process of decentralization and the changes in functions among levels of government.
Public-debt management: The Brazilian experience
This paper analyses public-debt management in Brazil and considers the main recent theoretical models and the possible effect that the strategy adopted by the Treasury from 1999 onwards could have on the base interest rate. The findings show that the public-debt-management strategy adopted by Brazil was based on the recommendations of Calvo and Guidotti (1990). The average maturity of public debt the proportion of shares linked to the Special System of Clearance and Custody (SELIC) and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio all play a significant role in determining the base interest rate. Government efforts to restructure public-debt maturities and reduce the negative effect on the interest rate are key in this regard.
Less advanced sectors in the Latin American fertility transition
Demographic change in Latin America has been driven by the behaviour of the middle and upper strata. Given that fertility and mortality in these groups are now relatively low. future changes will mainly come from the behaviour of less advanced sectors. This paper analyses the contribution of these less advanced groups to the decline in fertility distinguishing between the “distribution effect” and the “rates effect’. In less advanced sectors the desired number of children is lower than the actual number with early marriage and limited use of modern contraceptives continuing to be the rule. Even so these groups have entered the demographic transition. A number of countries have recently seen falls in their fertility rates due to the contribution of women with low levels of education: in the late transition countries behaviour is heterogeneous while in the advanced transition countries the greatest contribution is being made by women with primary education.
The human capital endowment of Latin America and the Caribbean
Although there are a great many theoretical and empirical studies which use the concept of human capital there is no generally accepted definition of this term and in many cases it is simply equated with formal education. This article will try to clarify the concept of human capital more precisely with special reference to the ways in which it can be acquired. It will also provide an international indicator that takes account of all the shades of meaning of the definition proposed here which are usually left out of the traditional indicators. Thus the proposed indicator will take into account health formal and informal education and experience. Analysis of the human capital endowments of the Latin American and Caribbean countries reveals a certain backwardness with respect to other regions. It should be noted however that there are big differences between countries although these have been reduced in the last few decades through a process of regional convergence.
The market and water management reform in Peru
This article examines the unsuccessful attempts made in the 1990s to introduce a market for water in Peru. This reform was thwarted because market operations were identified with water rights privatization even though a market can perfectly well operate on a basis other than that of private rights with the State retaining full ownership of the resource. The argument made here is that if these shortcomings were corrected the creation of a water market would be desirable to improve allocation and management of water and to deal with the increasingly serious difficulties associated with the administration of water access the lack of investment incentives and serious problems of efficiency and equity. The economic advantages and disadvantages of a water market are analysed as are the legal and regulatory prerequisites for promoting the kind of market that would really improve water allocation in the increasingly necessary institutional reform of this sector in Peru.
Spatial segregation, employment and poverty in Montevideo
This article looks at two processes that are affecting the characteristics of poverty in the city of Montevideo: the weakening of lower-skilled workers’ attachments to the labour market and the growing concentration of such workers in neighbourhoods with a high density of poverty. While far from conclusive the results suggest the advisability of further research into the relationship between changes in the social morphology of cities and the segmentation of their labour markets. If further research confirms both a tendency towards growing polarization in the spatial distribution of social classes in cities and the presence of feedback mechanisms reinforcing the social isolation of residents in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods it will be safe to say that these processes if not effectively countered will irreversibly widen the already excessive inequalities that affect large Latin American cities.
The influence of capital origin on Brazilian foreign trade patterns
This article aims to determine whether the geographical pattern of the external trade of foreign-owned enterprises in Brazil differs from that of domestic enterprises and whether in the case of foreign enterprises the region of origin of their capital is an important factor in determining that pattern both in terms of the origin and destination of their imports and exports and with regard to the technological content of the pattern. The methodology employed was panel analysis applied to a representative set of enterprises using trade data broken down by region for 1989 1997 and 2000.