Asia-Pacific Population Journal - Volume 21, Issue 1, 2007

The 2005 World Summit was an important event for those of us working to realize commitments made at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo over ten years ago to improve the lives of poor women and men in the developing world. At the United Nations Headquarters in New York, the largest ever gathering of world leaders in history convened in September 2005 resolved to achieve universal access to reproductive health by 2015, promote gender equality and end discrimination against women – the pillars of the ICPD Programme of Action (United Nations, 2005a).

According to the United Nations, world population numbered 6.5 billion in 2005 and is currently growing at about 1.2 per cent annually (United Nations, 2005). The 7 billion mark is projected to be reached in 2012, just six years from today. Long-range population projections reveal that the world’s population could ultimately stabilize at about 9 billion people.

This study will focus on mortality changes in the ESCAP region over the last two decades, predominantly from 1980-1985 to 2000-2005, but will also compare this experience with that of the three preceding decades, 1950-1955 to 1980-1985, in order to achieve perspective. That perspective will be often confined to the 99 per cent of the ESCAP region’s population that live in Asia, though we will frequently employ figures for the whole of Asia. In contrast to a previous report on the ESCAP area, we will focus on anomalies in mortality change that offer the possibility of improving the mortality experience.

Patterns of production and consumption vary with age. Therefore, the age structure of the population should influence the development process through the supply of, and demand for, labour and goods and services. However, much of the debate and discussion on population and development during the past several decades has centred on the size and growth of the population. This is because the high rate of population growth that resulted from unprecedented declines in mortality leading to larger population vis-à-vis resources – after the Second World War was seen as impeding economic growth in developing countries, including those in Asia and the Pacific.

In regards to the demographic-oriented indicators traditionally used to measure the progress made by population programmes, the Asian and Pacific region is viewed as a much heralded success. The current total fertility rate (TFR) of the region is 2.3 and the annual population growth rate is just 1.1 (ESCAP, 2005). There has also been progress in indicators that reflect the more inclusive concept of reproductive health based on supporting individuals to achieve their reproductive health goals. The quality of reproductive health care and services has improved, and reproductive rights, rather than demographic targets, now underlie most reproductive health programmes in the region.