Commodity prices and capital movement phenomena in emerging economies

The different fluctuations recorded in the balance of payments of emerging economies reflect the vulnerability of these economies, dependent as they are on the balance of capital and trade flows. This study analyses the relationship between commodity prices and some capital movement phenomena in a group of selected emerging economies. Probit and cloglog models are estimated to establish the likelihood of these phenomena occurring and their main determinants over the period from 1995 to 2016. The results allow us to identify the main global and country-level factors shaping the phenomena, as well as the importance of the contagion effect. The study concludes that countries which export large volumes of commodities, such as soybeans, minerals and oil, are subject to phenomena of reduction in foreign capital inflows.